Ramzan ceasefire ends in Kashmir and BJP-PDP split: Is the valley headed back to turmoil?

  25-Jun-2018 13:05:30

KashmirBJP-PDP alliance

With the Centre announcing the non-extension of ceasefire and beginning of anti-terror operation in Jammu and Kashmir, the rift within the alliance of PDP and BJP government led to the BJP to withdraw support from the Mehbooba Mufti government. However, there have been a lot of events taking place in the background which has resulted in such a stance by the central government. With differing views of stakeholders to rise of violent setbacks by militant groups of Pakistan, there are many dimensions to this issue.



There has been a mismatch between planning and execution leading to rising number of terror activities in the valley. The government's special peace initiative in the Kashmir Valley - suspension of cordon and search operations - was taken with the aim of providing respite to the people during the holy month of Ramzan. However, the outcome is not enlightening and also the shooting of senior journalist Shujaat Bukhari two days before Eid near his office in Srinagar ceased the hope of an extension of the ceasefire. The government could not compromise with any attack on the Amarnath Yatra which indeed comes with a cost of BJP. This move has spread a negative sentiment within the Hindutva constituency that there had been a softening of BJP government's tough approach towards militancy in J&K.

Looking at the situation of valley which witnessed a total of 41 killings since May 17 — the most prominent among them the drive-by shooting of journalist Bukhari and his two private security officers on Thursday, and the abduction and killing the same day by militants of Rashtriya Rifles jawan, Aurangazeb, in south Kashmir’s Pulwama district, proved the point that government could not keep up with its promise of ensuring peace in the valley. Although BJP has taken down its support from the PDP it cannot escape the rising criticism of the people. Also, many scholars had termed the coalition to be a total failure with BJP government compromising its political stance to gain power in the valley. The coalition government tried to treat the problem as and law and order issue rather than bringing the spectrum of politics. This resulted in the delay in the implementation of the ceasefire operations and instead of peace there had been terrorist activities in the valley.


Many stakeholders have even said that the idea of a unilateral ceasefire was a flawed one. Although it was based on the results of Vajpayee government the scenario had completely changed now. Instead under the Modi regime, the ceasefire allowed the terrorists and separatists to consolidate their position and stage attack as per their convenience. Also, the protests in Kashmir which are led by youth are far more radicalized than the earlier lot and have access to guns and stones causing much damage than before.


Instead of taking military action the government must first analyze the condition of the valley. India is a country which encompasses people coming from different religious backgrounds. So it is important to understand how religious activities could trigger terrorist groups to carry out their activities. One possible reason could be the presence of a large mass at a given area and so death rates would rise with any terrorist activity taking place. The second reason is the rising sentiment for the Muslim population in the valley. There has been the alienation of the Islamic values owing to the view that they might have some connection with the terrorists. This has led to Muslim population defending their stance and rise of Islamic radicalization in the valley.


Looking onto the dialogue process on the part of India with Pakistan this has not proved to be useful as even when both countries have come to an agreement that they will fully understand the ceasefire understanding still Pakistani forces have resorted to unprovoked firing from time to time. Although Indian forces have retaliated successfully a barrage of firing and shelling on the border is not the solution to establishing deterrence. The key to establishing deterrence is to credibly threaten escalation against the Pakistani army.


Grenade attacks with the police and army trying to control the mob and the protestors with tear gas shows the present condition of the valley after the ceasefire operations have come to a halt. Both the police and the people are suffering because of the past actions.


So it is up-to Modi government whether they will limit their strategy to ad hoc measures on the basis of popular public view or see any logic behind surgical strikes or other policies without thinking of long-term strategy.


Now with the split between the PDP and BJP Government and the imposition of governor’s rule the BJP must give the governor a free hand to check the growing alienation of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, especially by finally holding the much-delayed panchayat and local body elections, and allow real grassroots democracy to return. However, after the use of muscle power,it will be a hard time for the Modi government whether it will accept this stance or not.


One thing that looks likely is that the Centre will get more involved in the ongoing case in the Supreme Court on whether the special status granted to Jammu and Kashmir through Article 35A is unconstitutional. This case is not a good news for Modi or the BJP Government.


Only time will tell whether it will be easy for BJP government to enter into the valley again and owing to the elections of 2019 whether people will buy this so-called powerful move of Modi or not.